The Detroit Lions host the Minnesota Vikings in the final week of the regular season on Sunday. The Vikes still have a 3% chance of making the playoffs but will need to win and get a lot of help in the NFL odds.
While the Lions have already locked up the No. 3 seed, they could still snag the No. 2 spot with a victory and losses from both the Eagles and Cowboys.
Week 18 odds opened with the Lions as 5.5-point home favorites but money has poured in on the visitors driving the spread down to -3.5. Here are my best free NFL picks and predictions for Vikings vs. Lions on Sunday, January 7.
Vikings vs Lions odds
Vikings vs Lions predictions
The Minnesota Vikings’ quarterback carousel continues as they benched rookie Jaren Hall at halftime last week, reinstating Nick Mullens in the lineup. Since losing Kirk Cousins to a season-ending injury in Week 8, Minnesota has deployed three quarterbacks, with Mullens stepping in to replace the struggling Josh Dobbs midway through a Week 14 contest against the Raiders.
Mullens had moved the ball extremely well in two starts, completing 69.6% of his passes for 714 yards, but he also had six turnovers during that span. However, with Hall looking terrible against a subpar Packers defense, Mullens is back under center. The Vikings QB threw for 411 yards against the Detroit Lions two weeks ago and he should be able to able to air it out against a Lions secondary that ranks 30th in defensive dropback EPA since Week 7.
That said, Mullens’ tendency to turn the ball over (four interceptions and seven turnover-worthy plays against Detroit) could also result in points coming the other way, especially with the Lions boasting a balanced attack that’s sixth in the league in dropback success rate and fourth in rush success rate.
Lions head coach Dan Campbell has said “we’re gonna use our full arsenal and go win this game,” so even though Detroit will almost certainly be the No. 3 seed, don’t expect him to take things easy. Keep in mind that the Lions upset the Packers in a “meaningless” regular-season finale in Green Bay last year and will want to enter the playoffs with some momentum after a tough loss last week.
Detroit entered last week’s showdown in Dallas as 4.5-point road underdogs in a classic letdown spot after clinching the NFC North with a 30-24 win against the Vikes in Week 16. However, the Lions kept pace with Dallas all game and ended up losing 20-19 due to a two-point conversion being reversed on a controversial call at the end.
The Lions will want to wash out the bitter taste from that close defeat, and the fact that Campbell repeatedly chose to go for a two-point conversion instead of kicking the game-tying PAT showed how aggressive he plans on playing. With a highly efficient offense and leaky secondary, Detroit has been consistently cashing Overs indoors. While the Lions might rest a few key players after the break, expect both teams to put up plenty of points by halftime.
My best bet: Over 22.5 1H (-112 at DraftKings)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
MORE NFL FREE PICKS
Vikings vs Lions same-game parlay
Over 22.5 1HJared Goff Under 223.5 passing yardsJustin Jefferson Over 87.5 receiving yards
+600 at DraftKings
It’s interesting to see Jared Goff’s passing yards total set at just 223.5 in this contest. This is easily the lowest passing yards O/U we’ve seen for Goff all year, with his Week 14 game outdoors at Soldier Field having the next lowest number at 241.5. Goff is averaging 272.3 passing yards per game in dome stadiums this year and threw for 257 yards against the Vikes two weeks ago — with his O/U set at 256.5.
That means books are likely assuming that Goff gets pulled at some point in this contest. Even a coach like Campbell has to understand the importance of keeping his franchise QB healthy for the playoffs so don’t be surprised if Goff doesn’t finish the game. If that’s the case taking the Over on the first half total along with the Under on his passing yards would create a nice parlay multiplier.
Let’s also add the Over 87.5 receiving yards for Justin Jefferson into the mix. The Lions secondary has been getting torched and is coming off a game where it surrendered 227 yards to CeeDee Lamb.
Jefferson struggled along with the rest of Minnesota’s offense in last week’s loss to the Packers but he still had 10 targets in that game. The All-Pro wideout racked up 141 receiving yards against the Lions two weeks ago and he had a career-high 223 yards when he went to Detroit last year.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Best NFL bonuses
All UsersNo-sweat 3+ leg SGP every dayBonus bets back if your wager doesn’t win! Claim Now
New UsersGet up to $1,500 bonus bets backIf your first bet doesn’t win! Claim Now
All UsersJustin Jefferson First TD ScorerWas +550, BOOSTED to +750! Claim Now
Eligible USA locations only. Also, see our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2024.21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
